In comparison with the election campaign, which took Yingluck Shinawatra only 49 days to rise to the top political post of prime minister, the public attention is now on Ms. Yinglucks political actions and visions for Thailand. Due to her untiring commitment the youngest sister of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has been living abroad in self-imposed exile, managed to win the National Election by a landslide victory. She achieved a total of 265 mandates for her Phue Thai Party. Now together with minor coalition partners she is holding an overwhelming majority of 300 from 500 seats in the House of Representatives. Finally the members of the House of Representatives voted 296 : 3 to select Ms. Yingluck as prime minister with 197 abstentions.

It seems, that her government is built up on safe grounds when it comes to the question of majority in parliament. But there are several challenges and even threats ahead Ms.Yingluck has to deal with. As these issues are very complicated in nature her election campaign was obviously the much easier part than the forthcoming time in her capacity as prime minister.

Challenges

Being Thailand’s first woman to hold the premiership will not extend her any favours from the very beginning. Ms. Yingluck’s reaffirmation of her commitment to bring reconciliation, peace and justice comes amid the political divide which has gripped Thailand since her brother Thaksin was deposed by a military coup in 2006. While campaigning Ms. Yingluck repeatedly promised to implement a political amnesty. If such an amnesty would lead to the impression, that it were executed to the advantage of Mr. Thaksin alone rather than to the benefit of all the other people who are imprisoned for political reasons, this step could harmstring the Phue Thai-led government. Mr. Thaksin, who was sentenced by the Supreme Court to two years jail for supporting his ex-wife buy state land in 2003 while he was prime minister. Is still confronted with an highly influential opposition from Bangkok elites. Moreover, an amnesty means a very sensitive issue with regard to the anti-Thaksin positions which are still in place with the judiciary and the military. Especially here Ms. Yingluck will have to walk on a tightrope while she has to demonstrate neutrality as much and often as possible.

With regard to their self-sacrificing support for the Phue Thai Party there are similar expectations with the “Red Shirts” of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD). Next to their desire to be adequately represented in Ms. Yingluck’s government the UDD is demanding investigations in the violent suppression of the March/April 2010 demonstrations by the military, which led to more than 90 casualties amongst the “Red Shirts”. In this regard not only army leaders are on alert. The “Red Shirts’” political ideology has raised concerns even in other quarters, particularly because of their tendency to touch on Bangkok elites. This could lead to an enhanced opposition against the Phue Thai government from internal as well as from party external sides.

A second challenge concerns the implementation and enforcement of domestic policies which Phue Thai and Ms. Yingluck promised repeatedly during their election campaign. Ms. Yingluck’s government seems determined to push ahead with the populist programme that consists of two of the most controversial policies. These are - next to other issues like a cut in company taxes and a reduction in fuel prices - raising the minimum wages to 300 Baht (=10 US$) a day and a starting salary for university graduates of 15.000 Baht (= 500 US$) a month. While there is already a high inflation rate in the country, driven by climbing food and energy costs, some economist see a reversed effect and warn this could set off another wage-price spiral. Similar fears are referring to the envisaged improvement of a nation-wide healthcare scheme and supporting programmes for the rural arrears and agricultural sector.

A third challenge the new government has to focus on is the unchanged situation in Thailand’s southernmost provinces, where Muslim insurgency has cost more than 4.600 lives since 2004. Appropriate strategies, how to tackle the ongoing problem, have not been formulated yet.

On the foreign policy front the Yingluck-administration needs to restore ties with neighbours Thailand has alienated over the past years in the wave of violent border disputes with Cambodia. As the second non-parliamentarian movement in Thailand, the “Yellow Shirts” of the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), is demanding a military solution. Therefore, Ms. Yingluck has to handle the issue together with Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen with special care. It might be very helpful in normalizing diplomacy between the two countries, that Mr. Thaksin’s personal friendship with Mr. Hun Sen could contribute positively. The PAD had already questioned Thaksin’s position and accused him of conflict of interest over his personal relationship with Cambodia. For that reason any move by Yingluck’s government on the border dispute will be closely observed. Any negotiations that put Thailand at a disadvantage, or even compromising its position, could lead to questions about what Thaksin and his sister stand to gain. In a worst case scenario that could trigger any kind of oppositional counteractions or even street protests as one could see in the past.

Outlook

Ms. Yingluck is confronted with several and undoubtless sensitive challenges. Her priority is the national reconciliation process, which bears a lot of difficulties. It is recommendable to her, that she stands as neutral as possible and without strengthening the impression, that she acts as Mr. Thaksin’s proxy.

She should go ahead with her political programmes that will immediately better the standard of living, but she should address and include state agencies and the private sector as well. She should be careful in gaining too much popularity, which could have a negative effect on her relationship with Bangkok elites, the judiciary and last but not least the military. A very much balanced policy is required in every aspects to bring Thailand step by step back to normal.

Ms. Yingluck, although her political experience has been questioned, has set up a cabinet that seems to be already prepared for changes in the near future. Without any political heavyweights the Prime Minister will stay unharmed to the greatest possible extend if the implementation of her intended policies would be accompanied by serious problems and changes of the personel would become inevitable. The 5-years political ban on former politicians from the first Thai Rak Thai Party-generation will be ending in 2012; any cabinet changes by recruiting replacement candidates out of that pool would not be surprising.